Paul Helm, Chief Government Accountant
The Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the three months ended 30 September 2016 were released by the Treasury today. The statements are compared against forecasts based on the 2016 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) published on 26 May 2016.
The results for the three months to the end of September show an operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) surplus of $222 million which was $725 million better than forecast largely due to higher than forecast core Crown tax revenue.
Core Crown tax revenue at $17.3 billion, was $523 million or 3.1% higher than forecast and $1.1 billion higher than for the same period last year. Higher than expected provisional tax resulted in an increase to corporate tax ($252 million) with residential investment and tourist spending contributing to higher than forecast GST ($134 million).
Core Crown expenses at $18.9 billion, were close to forecast.
When combined with the OBEGAL result, higher than forecast net gains resulted in an operating balance surplus of $2,315 million ($2,202 million larger than forecast) as markets recovered somewhat from a decline in June.
The core Crown residual cash position, at a deficit of $810 million, was $1.4 billion smaller than expected, primarily reflecting higher than expected tax receipts of $1.2 billion. This lower-than-forecast cash deficit, together with the lower than forecast opening net debt position ($0.4 billion), has flowed through to net debt which was $1.7 billion lower than forecast at $63.1 billion (25.1% of GDP).