Why Trump will find it hard to achieve his economic plans
From a shortage of skilled workers to income inequality, Donald Trump will face at least six challenges.
WASHINGTON—President Donald Trump’s economic plans are nothing if not ambitious: Annual growth of 4 per cent — or more. A diminished trade gap. The creation of 25 million jobs over 10 years, including the return of good-paying factory positions.
It all adds up to an immense challenge, one that Trump aims to achieve mostly by cutting taxes, loosening regulations, boosting infrastructure spending and renegotiating or withdrawing from trade deals. At the top of his agenda: Pulling out of the 12-nation Pacific trade agreement and rewriting the North American Free Trade Agreement to better serve the United States.
Yet to come anywhere near his goals, economists say Trump would have to surmount at least a handful of major hurdles that have long defied solutions. He may yet succeed. But he faces deep-rooted obstacles that have bedevilled presidents from both parties for years. Among the challenges are these:
A SHIFT TOWARD AUTOMATION
Trump’s goal of vastly expanding manufacturing would require at least the partial reversal of a decades-long trend toward a service-oriented economy and away from factory work. Former President Barack Obama sought to add 1 million manufacturing jobs in his second term but came up two-thirds short.
Even if Trump could return factory production to its heyday by toughening trade deals and threatening to slap tariffs on America’s trading partners, a surge of new jobs wouldn’t necessarily follow. The increased use of robots and automation has allowed factories to make more goods with fewer workers. Research shows that automation has been a bigger factor than trade in the loss of U.S. factory jobs.
The trend is spreading outside factory gates. Uber is experimenting with self-driving cars. Restaurant chains like Eatsa can now serve meals through an automated order-and-payment system. No cashiers or servers are needed.
“You cannot just slap tariffs on and hope that will bring back middle class jobs,” says Daron Acemoglu, an economist at MIT. “The jobs that went to China would come back to robots rather than people.”
A SHORTAGE OF SKILLED WORKERS
Jobs that can’t be automated typically require education beyond high school. Yet not everyone can or wants to attend college. Many analysts say the economy needs better and more widely available post-high school education and training, whether through community colleges, vocational schools or boot camps offering technology training.
Such a boot camp is how Sharnie Ivery managed to move beyond the retail and sales jobs he’d held right after high school. In 2013, Ivery began a six-month computer coding boot camp at Flatiron School in New York through which he obtained internships. Last year, he began working as a software developer at Spotify, the music streaming service. “There weren’t many opportunities for a career in technology” without training and experience, Ivery, 24, said.
Last year, the Obama administration opened some financial aid programs to Flatiron and other boot camps. But such efforts remain in an experimental phase, and any widespread successes from those programs are likely years away.
A lack of technological skills isn’t an issue only for the tech industry itself. Modern manufacturing work increasingly requires high-tech know-how requiring some education or training beyond high school. Since the economic recovery began in 2009, only 12 per cent of manufacturing jobs have gone to workers with no more than a high school degree, according to research by Georgetown University’s Center for Education and the Workforce.
SLUGGISH WORKER PRODUCTIVITY
In the past decade, the growth of American workers’ productivity — the amount they produce per hour worked — has slumped to roughly half its long-term average.
That slowdown has imposed a dead weight on the economy. When employees become less efficient, it slows economic growth, and companies can’t raise pay without boosting prices. A faster expansion needs a combination of more people working and more efficient workers.
Trump’s proposals might help somewhat. He favours expanded tax breaks for companies that invest in new machinery and equipment, which typically make workers more productive. And he’s vowed to build more roads, tunnels and other infrastructure, which can save on shipping and commuting costs.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the conservative American Action Forum, says Trump’s push to loosen regulations might also lead to more startup companies, which could prod established businesses to become more efficient.
Still, many economists, like Robert Gordon of Northwestern University, argue that today’s innovations — in mobile communications and biotechnology, for example — aren’t transformative enough to fuel the explosive productivity growth that resulted from inventions like the automobile, telephone and computer.
INCOME INEQUALITY
Economic growth since the recession ended has been both slow and uneven: It’s benefited wealthier Americans far more than low- and middle-income households. Trump’s nominee for Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, noted this concern at a confirmation hearing last week: “The average American worker has gotten nowhere,” he said.
The tepid gains for low- and middle-income families have slowed the economy because those groups typically spend more of their income than do affluent households, and consumer spending is the economy’s primary fuel. Against that backdrop, Trump’s goal of 4 per cent annual economic growth — a formidable one under any circumstances — might be next to impossible.
Mnuchin said the administration’s proposals to cut taxes for individuals and businesses would shore up families’ finances and encourage companies to hire more. Yet America’s wealth gap has widened even as previous presidents have cut individual taxes.
A SLOW-GROWING WORKFORCE
Trump has pledged to add 25 million jobs over the next decade. But with fewer people looking for work now than just a few years ago, it’s unclear where all those extra workers would come from.
The president’s pledge will run up against a long-standing trend: A decline in the proportion of Americans either working or seeking work. That’s largely a reflection of an aging population. Roughly 10,000 baby boomers turn 65 every day, and many retire. The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the proportion of Americans working or looking for will keep dropping to 61.5 per cent by the end of 2020.
Mark Lashinske of Tempe, Arizona-based Modern Industries, which makes machine tools, says he’s struggling to fill 14 machinists’ positions. He blames the steady loss of manufacturing jobs since 1980 for discouraging an entire generation from factory work. His company is expanding its efforts to find younger job applicants.
The company has established an internship program and is working with a non-profit group to encourage disadvantaged high school students to consider manufacturing careers.
“We’ve been looking for quite a while,” he says. “We have such a shortage.”
Most economists argue that encouraging more legal immigration could help counter an otherwise slow-growing workforce and might help accelerate economic growth. Yet Trump campaigned on tightening immigration restrictions.
“In the absence of immigration, we shrink the size of our population and our economy and our global influence,” Holtz-Eakin says.
STRONG DOLLAR
Through renegotiating treaties like NAFTA and pushing companies to keep more jobs at home, Trump hopes to reduce — or even eliminate — the trade deficit, a measure of how much more America imports than exports. The U.S. has run trade deficits since 1975.
Yet if Trump’s policies accelerate growth, the Federal Reserve would be more likely to raise the short-term interest rate it controls to keep inflation in check. Faster growth and higher rates, in turn, would attract more investors to the dollar, raising its value compared with other currencies.
The catch? A stronger dollar makes U.S. exports costlier and imports cheaper — a recipe for an even wider trade deficit and a headwind for growth.
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| Published in thestar.com January 23, 2017 |
Back in March 2016 Slash gear ran this item about Autodesk's Project Escher printer. This new 3D printer from Autodesk wants to revolutionize 3D printing technology by allowing users to print larger items. Project Escher is an assembly line of 3D printers with a smart setup controller that is able to control an endless number of print heads to create larger items. Rather than having a single printer working on one large project, Project Escher has multiple print heads each working on one section of an object.
By having multiple heads working on a large project, the item can be completed more quickly. “By intelligently distributing toolpaths between multiple collaborating machines, systems enabled by Project Escher can manufacture parts faster than traditional 3D printers,” say the developers. “Project Escher is a parallel processing system where numerous independent tools collaborate to fabricate a design. It’s faster because whatever the job is, there are more workers on that job. And there is no compromise to detail because we’re using proven existing technology.”
Each of the independent printers has interchangeable tool heads. The company hopes to make the tool head changing automatic, along the lines of how a CNC machine works. The team of designers also hopes to create Pick-and-Place tools that would put pre-made components into an object during the printing.
Autodesk also expects to integrate other technologies into the printer including laser cutting. One key bit of information that is outstanding right now is when Project Escher will hit the market. Developers of Project Escher are looking at a 2017 or 2018 launch. The faster multi-head printer would be able to complete a larger piece for inspection the same day.
As exciting as the technology is, the industry has been waiting for signs that Project Escher would actually be available to the public. At CES this year, the wait was put to an end as Colorado-based start-up Titan Robotics showed off Cronus, the first commercially available 3D printer relying on Project Escher technology.
> > > Continue to read full article
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Auckland – Technology is at the heart of improving productivity of government services and the second annual NZTech Advance Government and Technology Summit in Wellington on February 28 will play a landmark role in helping New Zealand become a stronger digital nation, NZTech chief executive Graeme Muller says.
The summit is a high-level event that will host the key players from government, industry and technology to lead discussions on transformative technology aiding the delivery of better public services.
The event will offer insights from people working behind the scenes about the government’s ICT strategy framework and the complex issues behind the government adoption of the public cloud. The public sector is single largest customer of the tech sector.
“This year we focus on advancing the use of technology across the public sector and building stronger collaboration across government,” Muller says.
“Among those attending are leaders and executives from government and technology, senior policy makers, senior advisers, controllers and strategists from government agencies and enterprise architects, technology and operations managers from local and central government, health and education.
“The summit has also attracted risk officers, transformation leaders, performance leaders and business partners within government and industry and finally chief information officers and their top team members from NZ-based and international companies.
“New Zealanders need to understand the benefits and challenges of implementing the acceleration of public cloud services. We must realise the deeper implications of working with data and security in the cloud.
“We will discuss how government and industry leaders can build a culture within government to support tech transformation and become a strong digital nation.
“Transforming government services will lead to better outcomes for all New Zealanders, especially those in most need. With up to 40 percent of all money spent on tech in New Zealand spent by the public sector, enabling agencies to share innovative ways of using technology will drive better public services.
“Technology is at the heart of the transformation that government is looking for. NZTech is committed to working with government to enable this transformation.
“Productivity lies at the core of New Zealand’s long-term economic challenges. Hard won in a small isolated economy, productivity in New Zealand has declined over the past 40 years, compared to other small developed economies. With services making up 70 percent of New Zealand’s GDP, it is here that the greatest productivity challenge exists.
“Technology is at the heart of improving productivity of government services. Discussions between government and industry are now far more “gritty” and open, and able to grapple with real issues faced by agencies.
“But the environment in many government agencies does little to nurture innovation. While there is a proliferation of data in government agencies, a resistance, or inability, to share and collaborate is undermining the value of the data.”
Muller says next month’s summit at Te Papa is central to both the government’s aspiration for the economy and transforming the way government operates and delivers public services. The tech the industry believes that more can be done to work alongside government to help bring about positive outcomes, he says.
For further information contact New Zealand Technology Industry Association chief executive Graeme Muller on 021 02520767 or Make Lemonade media specialist Kip Brook on 0275 030188
| A MakeLemonade release | January 24, 2017 |
New Zealand is under the spotlight as a world-class wine producer over the next two weeks with an influx of international media and wine trade arriving to attend a series of events that will showcase the country’s diverse regions and wine styles.
New Zealand Winegrowers are hosting over 90 international wine experts from around 20 countries at several events across the country including the Aromatics Symposium in Nelson, Pinot Noir NZ 2017 in Wellington, and Classic Reds in Hawke’s Bay.
“Our guests are here to discover what makes New Zealand such a unique place to grow grapes and explore the evolution in our wine styles” said Philip Gregan, CEO of New Zealand Winegrowers.
“New Zealand may produce less than 1 per cent of the world’s wine but we are attracting serious global attention. The events come at a time when New Zealand wine exports are riding high, exceeding a record $1.6 billion.”
“We are confident the upcoming events will continue to fuel the interest in our world-class Pinot Noir, Sauvignon Blanc, Chardonnay, Riesling, Syrah and much more. New Zealand is ready to shine”.
New Zealand wine is exported to more than 90 countries, and is New Zealand’s 6th largest export good.
| NZ Winegrowers release | January 24, 2017 |
Auckland Chamber launches confidential service to ensure employers meet New Zealand wage regulations.
Increasing numbers of migrants and younger workers being taken advantage of by employers; notes Auckland Chamber head Michael Barnett.
Anyone who believes they have been underpaid, had their passport confiscated or wanting to clarify their employment conditions can register confidentially on a dedicated website: www.paychecknz.co.nz.
“We will investigate the situation in complete confidence,” said Mr Barnett.
He stressed that the Chamber was not being anti-employer in setting up the service. “But we don’t want the vast majority of good employers to be branded by the minority.”
Through other services, the Chamber has successfully assisted many hundreds of migrants and young people who leave school without qualifications into employment. “Many are vulnerable people who can easily be taken advantage of.”
There is also a small group of employers who are migrants who may not be familiar with NZ’s wage regulations; e.g. that the minimum wage is $15.25, and could make use of the service, concluded Mr Barnett.
| ACOC release | January 23, 2017 |
Palace of the Alhambra, Spain
By: Charles Nathaniel Worsley (1862-1923)
From the collection of Sir Heaton Rhodes
Oil on canvas - 118cm x 162cm
Valued $12,000 - $18,000
Offers invited over $9,000
Contact: Henry Newrick – (+64 ) 27 471 2242
Mount Egmont with Lake
By: John Philemon Backhouse (1845-1908)
Oil on Sea Shell - 13cm x 14cm
Valued $2,000-$3,000
Offers invited over $1,500
Contact: Henry Newrick – (+64 ) 27 471 2242